in israel people are always talking about "the situation" usually referring to the armed conflict with the arab countries and in the occupied terriorties. in (the rare) times when the military conflict is getting less headlines and the country is calm "the situation" can broaden to include the economic conditions, but again this rare.

these days when people talk about "the situation" they clearly refer to the military conflict, plus "the situation" conversation dominate the public and private discourse.

i too find myself discussing "the situation" with all my friends and work colleagues. we actually start the conversation by asking each other, whomever gets to it first, "so what do you say about the situation in the country?" (which is also interesting that israelis call israel "the country" like new-yorkers call new-york "the city" as if it is the only country/city in the world).

below are my thoughts about "the situation".

my basic assumptions:

• israel should not accept a status quo where its cities and citizens are being attacked with rockets (whether it is by hamas in the south, or by hezbollah in the north)
• israel must retaliate when soldiers are being attacked and kidnapped on an internationally recognized border (UN resolution 1559) with a sovereign country (lebanon)
• neither hamas nor hezbollah anticipated the scale of the israeli reaction
• israel is taking advantage of the recent kidnapping to try and achieve much broader strategic goals (essentially creating a new status quo with both hamas and hezbollah)

the burning questions (and my short answers):

• will the current conflict escalate to a full blown war involving Syria? Iran? [i don't think so]
• how much is iran involved in the decision making of the hezbollah? [i think their role mostly has to do with supplying funds and weapons, and less in the way of how to put them into use (beside broad guidelines, such as inflict as much damage as you can on israel..)]
• does israel know what it is trying to achieve in its military operation? [i am not sure]
• how long before the "world" will make israel stop the assault? [anywhere between a few days to a couple of weeks]
• will the status quo change after this eruption of violence? [i think it will, in the sense that both parties will have a much better of understanding of the price involved in escalation]
• how will the west (world?) going to deal with iran and syria (as it is pretty clear that they are actively supporting and to a certain extent directing the hezbollah actions) [i think that thanks to the brilliant middle east policy of Bush iran does not have much to worry about at this stage…]