in israel there is a lot of talk about hezbollah winning the conflict.

nassrallah is reading the israeli press (he said so himself in one his interviews on al manar teleivision) and is enjoying every minute of it. but this is beside the point. the real question is the hezbollah really winning?

in the eyes of the hezbollah they already won this conflict based on the following:

• there is still a battle going-on after a month
• there are still rockets landing in israel in similar numbers to the start of the conflict
• israelis as far as hadera are not feeling safe
• northern israel is in shelters and not able to sustain a normal life
• nassrallah is still alive
• israelis believe they are losing

these arguments may be enough for the hezbollah to claim victory, but assuming there will be a cease-fire in the next few days, and the dust settles here is the reality:

• lebanon has suffered a major blow to its civilian infrastructure and economy, it will take years for lebanon to rebuild the country to its pre-July 12 state. israel on the other hand will go back to normal rather quicly, repairing the local damages

• the shiites in lebanon have been the target of probably 90% of the israeli attacks. hunderds of thousands fled their homes, and many of them will go back to find that their villages are completely destroyed, their businesses gone.
• israel was able to take over any village it wanted, and hezbollah stronghold it wanted, and suffered casualties only in occasions when it was concerned for civilian life, and sent troops in rather than completly destroy the target
• hezbollah military strength has been greatly reduced (the extent of which will continue to be debated), israel destroyed much of its ammunition, bunkers and killed a good amount of hezbollah fighters
• hezbollah will likely have to agree to a lebanse army presence in the south together with an international force (something the hezbollah has resisted for the past 6 years). which will make it harder for the hezbollah to launch attacks/provoke/harass israel. it will be harder for hezbollah to rebuild its arsenal as israel and the international community will be watching it closely.

but even so, dancing over lebanon's rubble will be nassrallah, celebrating his great "victory".

the shiites already far behind their sunni and christian fellow citizens will fall even further behind. they'll count hundreds of dead, they will have lost their homes and livelihood.

maybe some of them will start asking questions like "what did we gain by this war?", "did it serve our interests? our childrens interests?". "for what cause did our relatives die?", "who are these iranian friends that send us to do their dirty job?".

maybe they will not ask these questions. maybe they will have pride in their "victory", will be angry with these jews with horns, will look for a flag to torch, and chant "death to israel, death to america" as they stand over the rubble that used to be their life.

indeed an arab victory for the ages. as long as the arabs will continue in their quest to re-gain their pride by fighting israel, they will not move forward, but rather stay behind and complain about the evil west, and how it is to blame for their backwardness. 

war is measured by which of the parties was left in a worst shape, will take longer to recover and what are the long-term political impacts. based on all these measures israel will be the clear winner in this conflict. which is why i think the sooner the cease-fire the better. israel should insist on an international force, keep its right to preempt hezbollah's future build-up, and get the US and Europe to put sanctions and pressure on iran and syria.