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The Next War of the World

September 11, 2006 at · Filed under middle east, politics

i wanted to subscribe to Foreign Affairs for a long time, and i finally did so today.

the first essay i read was by Niall Ferguson titled The Next War of the World. I read his essay with the bias of knowing he is an historian who is favored by neo-cons, for his strong support for american foreign intervention, realpolitik, and US acting as the empire that it is without a troubled conscious. 

in his essay niall is trying to explain why the 20th century was the bloodiest, and later on he predicts that most likely the 21st century will be the same. just that this time it would be the middle-east and not the balkans that will incubate the global conflicts. considering the current state of things this is not a very creative line of thinking. it is harder to find someone that holds an optimistic view for the region.

niall attributes the time and location of the violence to ethnic disintegration, economic volatility, and empires in decline. today the "empires in decline" is not very relevant, though the US may be regarded as such. the other two factors are very much in play in the middle east.

his remedy for the middle-easy situation is more intervention by the US, and economic progress. i am not sure about either. 

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Gordon the Gnome said,

September 12, 2006 @

I’ve heard interesting reviews for “The Next War of the World,” and would like to suggest that if you enjoy Foreign Affairs, you may also like the relatively-new American Interest (co-founded by neocon-turned-realist Francis Fukuyama).

But back to Ferguson’s “three e’s” (ethnic disintegration, etc)… I have to admit that the “empire in decline” argument has some validity, assuming first that you give weight to the idea of America as an empire. While American might remains largely unchallenged, there are signs that other powers in the world are rising to perhaps someday check its power.

Historically speaking, all it takes to drop an empire is extending oneself too far and/or giving other powers a motive to gang up on you. Sad to say, we’re currently doing both.

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