business week has on its cover a story about click fraud.
it gives a good overview about the subject and how it is impacting online advertisers.
it is very clear that google and yahoo don't have too much incentive to detect and fight click-frauds. yes there is a long-term, big picture risk for google and yahoo in case advertisers lose confidence in the cost-per-click (CPC) model, but in the meantime they are making lots of money. as someone quoted in the article said, if it would have cost them money rather than make them money they would have resolved it already.
i am not sure click-fraud can be completely resolved, but i think several measures could be taken to reduce it:
- tracking how much time a clicking user spend in the site - if the user (or bot) that clicked the ad leaves the site after a few seconds it is obviously not a very valuable click
- tracking geo location of the clicking user - if the visiting user is from Kazakhstan and the ad is for grocery service in dallas, tx then there is a good chance this is fraudulent click
- comparing user behavior based on source - if users that come from a specific site running the ad are behaving very differently from the average user that came after clicking an ad (lower conversion rate, less time spent in the site, etc.), it is a clear sign of fraud
to measure all this there needs to be software installed on the advertiser's site. i am not sure it is a good idea for that software to be coming from google/yahoo.. it makes more sense for google/yahoo to certify 3rd parties click-tracking software and work with the advertiser to define the specific parameters that would define a click-fraud.
all this may lead to a change in the model from CPC to cost-per-transaction (CPT). where CPT will be defined based on the specific circumstances of the advertiser, it may be buying something, or just spending a certain amount of time on the site, or getting to a certain stage in a process that takes place on the site.
CPT has been used for years in the online gambling and sex sites, and its about time it will be used by mainstream advertisers.



