i got the iraq study group report yesterday and stayed up late to finish reading it.

i find the approach of co-chaired, bi-partisan, old-men groups that are supposed to come up with conclusions and recommendations a bit weird. 5 republicans and 5 democrats, all greatly honored for serving with each other on the committee, quickly establish a group-think and reach consensus.

it is a system than guarantees that not the best solution will be offered, but rather the lowest common denominator.

so i was surprised that the report actually did a reasonably fair job in describing how dire is the situation in iraq, and hopefully put an end to the "we're making progress", "the media is only covering the bad news out of iraq..", mantra from bush and his aides.

with regard to the specific recommendations:

• the general approach - i think what they are trying to suggest with regard to a graceful exit from iraq is a scenario in which the US will be able to say "we did all we could to help the iraqis govern themselves, the iraqi government is unable/not willing to make the progress required from a sovereign body and we no longer feel it is our responsibility to support them". which will allow the US to pull out most of its troops and not call it a defeat.

  they are offering real measures to improve things on the ground, but at this stage the situation is so hopeless, that it will not account for much. i don't think they really believe their operational recommendations to better the situation in iraq have a real chance of succeeding.

• the diplomatic offensive - i believe the US can get everyone to cooperate beside iran. the path to syria probably lies with getting israel to return the golan heights (one of the recommendations), which i believe israel will have to do, but this is not going to happen quickly enough to have an impact on the situation in iraq.

  the US will not be able to create strong enough incentives or disincentives to move iran. iran is just having too much fun watching the US bleed in iraq, and the international community will not side with the US as long as this administration is in power.

  actually i doubt that the current administration can not lead any "diplomatic offensive". it's not just that they are not competent to do it, bush is too stubborn and too you're-either-with-us-or-against-us kind of guy. as he is so proudly admits he lacks this type of nuance.

• the milestones to the iraqi government - great milestones. no chance what so ever they are going to meet (or even try to meet) these milestones.
• the military recommendations - sounds good. i am not sure why it took these wise old men to come up with this list, and why these issues are only being addressed 3.5 years into the war, but i guess it is better later than never.

  changing the main military mission to training is a very clear path for the US to reduce the number of troops and gradually pull-out.

considering the fact that the ISG was not supposed to look on the past, but rather focus on where do we go from here there are a few interesting comments in the report

• strong criticism of the administration handling of the funding to the war outside of the main budget
• calling for the administration to be more open and honest with the public
• pointing out inaccurate reporting of violence level
• criticizing the number of arabic speaking officials in the embassy (6 out of 1000)

now i understand why bush looked like a ghost when he received the report last week (i'll be interested to know whether he actually read it, or did someone just summarize it for him in a few bulletpoints in powerpoint).

i think he'll wait a few more weeks till the pentagon finish its own review, and while he speaks with "advisors" and members of congress. he will then have a prime-time TV address where he will say "over the past few weeks i have conducted an intensive review of the situation in iraq. i would like to thank the iraq study group, the pentagon analysts, and all those who dedicated their time and efforts to think about this challenge…. blah, blah, blah. i believe there is a path for victory in iraq… there were some great ideas offered by the different groups that looked into the situation… i am planning to adopt some of these ideas into a new comprehensive plan that will clear the path to a successful conclusion of the mission in iraq… blah blah blah"

bush will embrace some of the operational recommendations in the report, he will set milestones (but will not link them to troop levels), he will send a special envoy to the middle-east, he will call for a "stakeholders" conference of all the countries that have an interest to see iraq come out of its crisis.

the bottom line will be that troop levels will not come down significantly and there will be no end in sight for the current US approach in iraq as long as bush is president.

john mccain will not win the 2008 elections (and maybe not even the republican primaries) because of his position on iraq. a democrat will win 2008, and will pledge to be out of iraq by any meaningful measure by Jan 2010.

too many predictions for one post..