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book review: the long tail

i am going to hear chris anderson talk about the long tail later today, so i pushed myself to finish the book in time.

the long tail is a pretty simple concept that anderson is applying mostly to the business world. wait better let wikipedia define it:

Anderson argued that products that are in low demand or have low sales volume can collectively make up a market share that rivals or exceeds the relatively few current bestsellers and blockbusters, if the store or distribution channel is large enough. Examples of such mega-stores include the online retailer Amazon.com and the online video rental service Netflix. The Long Tail is a potential market and, as the examples illustrate, the distribution and sales channel opportunities created by the Internet often enable businesses to tap into that market successfully.

A former Amazon employee described the Long Tail as follows: "We sold more books today that didn't sell at all yesterday than we sold today of all the books that did sell yesterday." In the same sense, the user-edited internet encyclopedia Wikipedia has many low popularity articles that, collectively, create a higher quantity of demand than a limited number of mainstream articles found in a conventional encyclopedia such as the Encyclopædia Britannica.

 the origin of the book is an article published in wired, which then grew to become a book.

the book got my entrepreneurial cycles going, which not many books do, but overall i think it is a simple concept and phenomenon that does not require 225 pages to explain and analyze. there is A LOT of repetition. at a certain point i thought i am reading "the long tail for dummies".

to anyone who is interested i recommend reading the original article and some of chris's blog entries. …but the book is a good read and it is thought provoking, so maybe you should read the book, too.

dotmobi

so starting tomorrow everyone can register a ".mobi" domain. so what?

i am not sure i understand why it is needed. i believe (know) today's technology can enable device/browser detection, so if a mobile phone is accessing google.com the webpage can be rendered to fit to the mobile device form.

if you look at dotmobi's site and read what they are saying in interviews/pr they mention the main reason for dotmobi is to create a mobile friendly web. users accessing a .mobi site will know it works properly on mobile devices.

this does not sound like a convincing argument to me. for websites to be more mobile friendly they need to care about mobile usage, and create a version of their site that will cater to mobile users. the fact that there is now a .mobi domain will not make a difference.

so why create a .mobi domain given that .info, .biz, .us did not really succeed (nor does .net)? i think that the companies involved just thought there could be money made. thousands of companies will register the .mobi domain just to protect themselves. and if it catches on thousands more will follow, and a business generating millions of dollars will be created.

i don't think .mobi will be a success among end-users. time will tell.

on the BW click-fraud story

business week has on its cover a story about click fraud.

it gives a good overview about the subject and how it is impacting online advertisers.

it is very clear that google and yahoo don't have too much incentive to detect and fight click-frauds. yes there is a long-term, big picture risk for google and yahoo in case advertisers lose confidence in the cost-per-click (CPC) model, but in the meantime they are making lots of money. as someone quoted in the article said, if it would have cost them money rather than make them money they would have resolved it already.

i am not sure click-fraud can be completely resolved, but i think several measures could be taken to reduce it:

  • tracking how much time a clicking user spend in the site - if the user (or bot) that clicked the ad leaves the site after a few seconds it is obviously not a very valuable click
  • tracking geo location of the clicking user - if the visiting user is from Kazakhstan and the ad is for grocery service in dallas, tx then there is a good chance this is fraudulent click
  • comparing user behavior based on source - if users that come from a specific site running the ad are behaving very differently from the average user that came after clicking an ad (lower conversion rate, less time spent in the site, etc.), it is a clear sign of fraud

to measure all this there needs to be software installed on the advertiser's site. i am not sure it is a good idea for that software to be coming from google/yahoo.. it makes more sense for google/yahoo to certify 3rd parties click-tracking software and work with the advertiser to define the specific parameters that would define a click-fraud.

all this may lead to a change in the model from CPC to cost-per-transaction (CPT). where CPT will be defined based on the specific circumstances of the advertiser, it may be buying something, or just spending a certain amount of time on the site, or getting to a certain stage in a process that takes place on the site.

CPT has been used for years in the online gambling and sex sites, and its about time it will be used by mainstream advertisers.

taking the next step in VoIP

i have been using Vonage for about 3 years, and i am not a very happy customer. some of it has nothing do with them, and more with cablevision which is my broadband provider.

but i think i am ready to make the next step and abandon my legacy VoIP vendor and move to a pure Skype set-up.

the idea will be to have a wireless (wifi) skype phone (like the one i just pre-ordered on amazon), have skype-in number, and use skype-out to make outgoing calls to PSTN.

i'll give it a test and if i am a happy customer then i will turn-off my vonage.

YouTube advertising

youtube

i saw that dead 2.0 reported that youtube has started to put advertising on its site, so i went to check it out.

it was (still is last time i checked) a premium placement for an ESPN ad for their new Monday Night Football. The ad is not that good, but what pisses me off is that youtube did not put some sort of disclaimer to the users saying it is a paid advertisement (which also seems to be what the dead 2.0 guy didn't like).

i agree with fred wilson that believes youtube should use short video ads into the content. he also went into the trouble of putting together the excel sheet business model. i think users will be willing to accept this type of advertising, and i think the revenues should be shared with the video creators/uploaders.

i disagree with those who think that much of the youtube content will scare off advertisers. i think the tie between the ads and the content will most likely completely disappear, and it will be driven more by intelligent profiling of the end-user and search based targeting.

in any case one thing for sure. whenever the video content is an advertisement, the user should know it is the case. 

flickr

after several years of using imagestation to store and share my photos, i have moved to flickr.

i even paid flickr $24.95 for the PRO account, so i could upload all my photos in their original size and store them there forever*

i should have made the move long ago. but i liked the fact that imagestation lets me store as much photos as i like, and did not charge me anything. but now that they want $4.95 a year, my recent frustration with their uploading tool, and the fact that flickr is just so much better, made me move. 

* forever meaning as long as i keep paying..

dirty tactics (by Exxon?) used to fight Al Gore

gore video spoof

this is a story i missed over the weekend (either because of work, or because i am reading too much about the middle-east crisis and neglecting other news items), and was amazed to read today.

ABC reported that a supposedly amateur video on youtube that is making fun of al gore and his message about the dangers of global warming has actually been produced by a PR firm that counts among its client ExxonMobil.

the PR firm (DCI ) and Enron refused to comment on whether this indeed the case. but when the WSJ tried to reach out to the supposed amateur the email could be traced back to servers belonging to the PR firm..

youtube, blogs, myspace and more are used more and more by corporates to promote their products and message, but it seems to cross the line in being disingenuous. it is one thing to create a blog or a youtube video and even make it look amateurish, but deceiving the users to believe this was done by some 29yr old guy from california just for the fun of it, is something else.

book review: the search

it has been a long time since i read a work-related book.  for whatever reason i have hard time picking up such books, and an even harder time reading them. it seems like reading a history book or a novel will be a better use of my free time.

the reason i decided to read The Search was that i have been told by several people that "i must read it", so i did.

it was written by John Battelle. he is trying to explain the fundamentals of web search, the basic technology behind it, the business model and the future potential. not surprisingly much of the book is dedicated to the amazing rise of google.

it is an easy read and provides a great review of the space. my main criticism is that like many other books originating from the valley it dedicates to much time to gossip and name-dropping. 

the book awakened two old feelings in me. first is a yearning to go back to running an internet business, second is my distaste for the silicon valley culture.  

coming zune

coming zune

so it's official. microsoft will release an "ipod killer" by the end of the year.

there is a pretty, and very unmicrosoft like teaser site comingzune.com that was put up by microsoft. if this is an indication to the approach they are taking with zune, then there are reasons to be optimistic.

i really hope they'll come out with a great device, and will be able to put a dent into apple's market share. 

first thoughts on firefox 2.0 beta

firefoxi have played with the new firefox 2.0 beta for a few days.

here is what i like:

  • integrated spellcheck (awesome!)
  • the new search bar (with suggestions and history)
  • re-opening a tab you just closed..
  • better crash handling (restores session, including tabs and input fields)

what i don't like:

  • i need to use the "better crash handling" way too often… they have serious stability issues
  • i don't know. i expected more. doesn't have the new browser smell if you know what i mean. 
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