Archive for middle east
July 27, 2006 at · Filed under middle east, politics
i think israel should make a strategic decision with regard to the future of the current conflict.
in my opinion there are two options:
- Cease Fire together with International involvement
- Significantly escalating the military operation
the current status of air campaign together with a small ground force going from village to village is not effective.
i personally think that the path should be a Cease Fire. the Lebanese government and Hezbollah did not expect this type of reaction from Israel. they now understand that there is a heavy price to pay for these types of provocations. the International community should step in with peace keeping forces working together with the Lebanese army in southern Lebanon, and with the clear goal of disarming Hezbollah. at the same time the G8 should drive pressure on Syria and Iran to stop their support of Hezbollah.
there is a good chance this will diplomatic effort will not work. and Israel will have to enter into a military conflict sooner or later (in the meantime it will have to make it clear that efforts to arm the Hezbollah by Syria and Iran will not be tolerated). but i believe it is worth giving it a chance.
the other option of escalating the military operation means recruiting the reserves, a long battle, casualties, the inevitable loss of civilian life, economic impact, etc. and the ever true reality that it is much easier to start a war than to end it, with many surprises in the middle.
so if there is a chance to avoid all the mess why not give it a try?
one of the answers may be that people like wars. men mostly. it is an adrenaline rush. it is exciting. a sense of purpose. soldiers in their eagerness for action seem to spend more time dreaming of glory and comradeship than thinking about the chances of getting killed or wounded. with so many armed conflicts these days and throughout history you just can't avoid the conclusion that people actually like going to war.
July 26, 2006 at · Filed under middle east, politics, religion
it has now been 15 days since the start of the Hezbollah - Israel conflict.
at this stage i am bit confused regarding israel's goals and strategy. there is a question of what is the goals israel is realistically trying to achieve. is the goal to completely destroy hezbollah? just drive hezbollah from the border? create a new status quo? return the kidnapped soldiers? cause a civil war?
what ever the goal may be. it seems to be it is about time for israel to stop bombing civilian targets (e.g. power plants, airports, bridges), and focus just on hezbollah targets. by now i am sure the lebanese government and people got the message that israel holds them accountable for a militia working out of their supposedly sovereign country. continue this almost indiscriminate attack and that message may be forgotten.
i think israel should try to let parts of lebanon to return to a relatively normal life, while continuing the campaign against hezbollah in the south. to think that bombing beirut on a daily basis will cause people to start fighting hezbollah is a flawed logic.
i also don't understand why israel should send ground troops into lebanon fighting from bunker to bunker, village to village (WWI style). the type of fighting that is bound to generate casualties and gain little if any long term strategic advantage.
July 17, 2006 at · Filed under middle east, politics, religion
in israel people are always talking about "the situation" usually referring to the armed conflict with the arab countries and in the occupied terriorties. in (the rare) times when the military conflict is getting less headlines and the country is calm "the situation" can broaden to include the economic conditions, but again this rare.
these days when people talk about "the situation" they clearly refer to the military conflict, plus "the situation" conversation dominate the public and private discourse.
i too find myself discussing "the situation" with all my friends and work colleagues. we actually start the conversation by asking each other, whomever gets to it first, "so what do you say about the situation in the country?" (which is also interesting that israelis call israel "the country" like new-yorkers call new-york "the city" as if it is the only country/city in the world).
below are my thoughts about "the situation".
my basic assumptions:
- israel should not accept a status quo where its cities and citizens are being attacked with rockets (whether it is by hamas in the south, or by hezbollah in the north)
- israel must retaliate when soldiers are being attacked and kidnapped on an internationally recognized border (UN resolution 1559) with a sovereign country (lebanon)
- neither hamas nor hezbollah anticipated the scale of the israeli reaction
- israel is taking advantage of the recent kidnapping to try and achieve much broader strategic goals (essentially creating a new status quo with both hamas and hezbollah)
the burning questions (and my short answers):
- will the current conflict escalate to a full blown war involving Syria? Iran? [i don't think so]
- how much is iran involved in the decision making of the hezbollah? [i think their role mostly has to do with supplying funds and weapons, and less in the way of how to put them into use (beside broad guidelines, such as inflict as much damage as you can on israel..)]
- does israel know what it is trying to achieve in its military operation? [i am not sure]
- how long before the "world" will make israel stop the assault? [anywhere between a few days to a couple of weeks]
- will the status quo change after this eruption of violence? [i think it will, in the sense that both parties will have a much better of understanding of the price involved in escalation]
- how will the west (world?) going to deal with iran and syria (as it is pretty clear that they are actively supporting and to a certain extent directing the hezbollah actions) [i think that thanks to the brilliant middle east policy of Bush iran does not have much to worry about at this stage…]
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